Since its inception in May 2019, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has held the promise of transforming Africa’s agricultural sector and fostering sustainable economic growth and food security across the region. However, recent global crises, from the Ukraine conflict to the aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the intensifying impact of climate change, have presented significant challenges to continental food security and prosperity.

In response, governments and policymakers have a unique opportunity to harness recent data to fully exploit landmark continental trade agreements like AfCFTA. These agreements can facilitate trade flows while also diversifying imports to mitigate the effects of current and future global shocks.

A new report jointly published by AKADEMIYA2063 and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) delves into continental and regional trends in African agricultural trade flows and policies. This report places particular focus on the East African Community (EAC), the cotton value chain, and the implications of the Russia-Ukraine war on African nations.

Key Findings:

1. Intra-African Trade: Intra-African agricultural trade has grown significantly since the early 2000s. However, it still represents a relatively small portion of Africa’s total agricultural trade. Despite an absolute increase, Africa has yet to capture a growing share of the expanding global demand.
2. Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs): Existing RTAs in Africa, which primarily focus on tariff reductions, have had limited success in stimulating the agrifood market. The AfCFTA, while ambitious, currently excludes many agricultural products from tariff reductions, hindering its efforts to enhance continental agricultural trade and food security.

Recommendations:

1. Sophisticated Trade Policies: The current global context necessitates more advanced trade policies that tap into rising demand within the continent. Such policies are critical for boosting food supplies, agricultural incomes, and domestic market stability, which are vital for Africa’s recovery, resilience, and growth.
2. Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs): To stimulate further agri-food trade, governments should incorporate actionable provisions, particularly non-tariff measures, into trade agreements. Well-designed rules of origin and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures can significantly increase agricultural product exports, instilling market confidence and driving demand.
3. Environmental Provisions: Given the increasing threat of climate change, agricultural trade policy should include environmental provisions in RTAs. These provisions could address environmental degradation associated with trade through environmental law, cooperation, impact assessments, and more. Enforceable environmental measures will contribute to broader climate and environmental goals while supporting economic growth and food security.

By adopting these measures, Africa can make itself less vulnerable to supply shocks, reduce import dependency, and ensure sustainable and resilient food production amid global uncertainties. The AfCFTA holds immense potential, and with strategic and enforceable measures, it can pave the way for a more prosperous and secure future for the continent.